Black Friday Predictions for 2022

The exciting thing about Black Friday is that anything can happen. And, every year, there are plenty of surprises. The past two years, in particular, have been full of surprises.

Not only did most major retailers close their doors on Thanksgiving Day – due to safety reasons surrounding the coronavirus pandemic – but Black Friday sales started launching incredibly early in the season – in an effort to limit the impact of supply chain issues and shipping delays.

The result: Black Friday has gone from a one-day shopping sprint into a season-long deals marathon.

The way in which retailers release Black Friday ads changed completely too. The tradition of one big ad per retailer morphed into multiple pulsed ad drops (some of them surprisingly early) and, sometimes, month-long Black Friday sales.

With fewer health and safety concerns this year but more worries around inflation and rising prices, where does that leave Black Friday 2022? Read on for our predictions. We'll be making some updates as the landscape (inevitably) changes.

As Nov. 25 gets closer, you can see if our predictions are correct by checking out the official Black Friday ad scans.

1. Retailers will continue to stretch Black Friday out

Even before the pandemic, Black Friday was becoming more of a week than a day, with retailers kicking off their online Black Friday deals a few days to a week before Black Friday itself.

But the past two years pushed the envelope, and Black Friday ballooned from a week to a season, with retailers firing on all cylinders to start the hype early and keep it going until Thanksgiving weekend. For example:

In 2021, Amazon kicked off an early Black Friday sale at the start of October. This pre-sale continued until the Black Friday sale started on Thanksgiving Day. While there were a few standout deals on Black Friday, overall, there wasn't a stark difference between the deals offered during the "pre"-sale and the "real" sale.

We think we'll see a similar "marathon" approach this year, too. Given the limited stock issues shoppers faced last year, they will be more wary about items selling out. This paired with retailers' eagerness to drum up a month of hype, will create a perfect storm for an early (and long) Black Friday season in 2022.

2. Thanksgiving Day will be an online shopping bonanza

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, retailers walked back a decades-long tradition of opening their store doors on Thanksgiving to eager shoppers waiting in lines outside. Retailers cited safety concerns and employee appreciation as reasons for staying shuttered on Thanksgiving.

We already know that some retailers will be closed for Thanksgiving in 2022. Target, notably, announced in 2021 that it would permanently close its doors on Turkey Day. We suspect most major retailers will follow suit – perhaps not with a permanent announcement, but a plan to close on Thanksgiving in 2022 nevertheless.

This doesn't mean you won't find deals to devour while you enjoy your pie and mashed potatoes on November 24. Retailers will be running their Black Friday sales online on Thanksgiving Day. And those with brick-and-mortar locations might even have curbside pickup options. We'll share the announcements as soon as we know the details.

3. Spending & numbers predictions: Black Friday 2022 spending will be down

While Cyber Week (Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday) spending was slightly down year over year, when comparing 2021 to 2020, spending in November 2021 overall was up. In 2022, we expect to see a similar result, where spending is either equal to or up from 2021 in the month of November, but down during Cyber Week. We predict, that we might even see record spending in October in 2022.

Shoppers are likely to be more careful about where they are spending their money, since we are dealing with inflation at the moment. However, this also might lead to shoppers being more eager to scoop up items while they are available at deep discounts during Black Friday. Those who have been waiting to upgrade their electronics and wardrobe often use Black Friday as a a time to check off their shopping lists for less. Plus, with holiday gatherings making a return, the appetite for home goods will likely be strong.

Here's a look at the spending numbers since 2017 — and our projections for Black Friday 2022.

Source: Adobe Analytics

2021,2020, 2019, 2018, 2017

4. Retailer memberships will continue to be promoted

Amazon is known for hosting sales that are exclusively available to its Prime members. Prime Day is the obvious example. But during Black Friday, too, Prime members often have had early or exclusive access to specific deals and promotions.

Last year, Walmart got in on the retail membership action. Walmart hosted three Deals for Days shopping events as part of its Black Friday sale calendar, and each event gave early access to Walmart + members. IN addition, Best Buy had perks tied to its Total Tech membership.

We expect retailers to continue to push shoppers to sign up for their store membership programs this Black Friday. This serves as a way for retailers to entice shoppers to complete all their shopping through them – since they'd want to use the membership they're paying for. And, of course, retailers have a steady stream of income coming through every month when shoppers are paying for a membership.

Whether shoppers keep their memberships when the holiday season comes to an end is another story. According to research conducted by Bizrate Insights for Insider Intelligence, the number of shoppers who pay for retail memberships tends to increase during the holidays and drop off in the months that follow.

5. You'll want to snap up the top toys before Black Friday

Hot toys selling out around the holiday season is nothing new. We all remember the rush to buy Tickle Me Elmos and Furbies in the late '90s. This still holds true in 2022. Last year, Magic Mixies were a hot-ticket item that shoppers had a hard time finding in stock. While we're not entirely sure which toys are going to be the most popular this year, we predict that everything Jurassic World and Star Wars-themed will be sought after.

In general, if your child has one particular toy on their holiday wishlist, we recommend shopping before Black Friday begins. You might not find as many sales, but you should avoid items being out of stock.

We expect most major retailers to start releasing their toy lists in September. Walmart kicked off the toy list release, this year, sharing its selection on August 30, 2022.

6. Buy now, pay later programs will grow in popularity

Over the past couple of years, we've seen more and more retailers partner with companies that allow shoppers to pay for a purchase in installments. These types of payment programs used to be exclusively available for larger investment-type purchases – like furniture, appliances or TVs. Now, however, shoppers can choose to pay for a $40 sweater, for example, in installments.

With inflation driving product prices up, we expect more and more shoppers to try out these payment programs. Last year, CNBC reported that, according to Salesforce data, the use of buy now, pay later payment methods increased 29% year over year during Cyber Week 2021 globally. As a result of this growing interest from consumers, we expect retailers to promote their buy now, pay later programs a lot around Black Friday – perhaps, even linking promotions to their use.

7. Gift card deals and promotions will be big

Gift cards were a popular purchase during the 2021 holiday shopping season – since shoppers didn't have to worry about them selling out or not arriving in time. We also saw many great Black Friday gift cards deals at major retailers like Amazon and Target.

Finding a gift card on sale is basically like getting free money, so shoppers are wise to make these purchases. We expect to see even more gift card deals available this Black Friday and more promotions that tie together a product with a gift card.

The popularity of giving gift cards can also be attributed to the more recent trend of spending money on experiences rather than physical items. Through a gift card, you can give someone (or yourself) the experience of eating at a restaurant, going to a movie, staying at an Airbnb, visiting a spa etc.

8. Black Friday ads will still exist in some form

Black Friday ad releases fuel the Black Friday hype. Between October and the big day itself, retailers announce their deals via their much-anticipated deals flyers, which used to be mailed but now circulate digitally as "ad scans." No matter if an ad is leaked or published officially by the retailer, it creates instant buzz.

We don't expect the continuing shift to online shopping to affect the existence or form of these ads too much – given their popularity among consumers and in the media. We do, however, expect some retailers to continue to evolve beyond the traditional "ad scan" format.

Take Best Buy's approach over the past couple of years, for example: Instead of releasing a traditional ad, it announced its deals in a press release and published the sale page live on its website. This tactic makes sense, as it allows shoppers to add items to their carts early (or possibly buy things early), which they can't do with a PDF or paper ad scan.

As for the timing of ad scan releases, we expect to see the same release schedule we saw last year, as Black Friday is just one day earlier on the calendar – compared to 2021. We predict Walmart will once again release ads for its Deals for Days Black Friday saving events that will be announced in mid-October and kick off early in November. And we anticipate Target to also release multiple ads throughout November, promoting its early Black Friday, Black Friday and Thanksgiving sales.

9. Cyber Monday 2022 will be a Black Friday repeat (mostly)

Despite the hype Cyber Monday has gotten over the years, its deals are generally recycled from Black Friday. Having drummed up excitement over sold-out Black Friday deals, retailers typically release the same savings and pitch them to shoppers as a "second chance."

For shoppers, that means: Don't hold out for Cyber Monday, assuming deals will improve. If a popular product you want is on sale on Black Friday, buy it. And then hit up Cyber Monday sales for whatever you missed.

One thing to note, with travel back on the table, we do wonder if airlines and travel booking sites will launch deals on Cyber Monday. In the past, Cyber Monday was a popular time for deals surrounding travel, so we'll be on the lookout to see if this holds true in 2022.

WATCH: Black Friday vs. Cyber Monday: What to Buy Each Day