Hard to take this statement as pure fact without any substance to back it up. Can you explain the energy-to-value of Bitcoin and how it relates to fiat currency? Could you also explain how Bitcoin is less susceptible to "bad actors" than traditional currencies?
Your second source says Bitcoin network "consumes an estimated 113.89 TWh/yr" in total (page 4). It goes on to say "the global energy consumption of the banking system is estimated to be 238.92 TWh/yr." (page 6)
Given that we know the traditional system processes far more than 2X the transactions, we can assume it is more efficient.
As far as inflation, I can't think of a many more inflationary events than Bitcoin losing 1/3 of it's value in 10 days. If you were trying to pay your rent in Bitcoin, the cost just exploded because it's value tumbled relative to actual currencies. This has decreased your buying power more than any Fed action could.
I wasn't claiming anything to be incorrect. The source you provided says that the traditional banking system uses about twice as much total power as Bitcoin. We know that the traditional banking system process more than 2X the transactions of the Bitcoin network, so it is more efficient on a transaction basis.
Here is where you lose me. On one hand you say: "If you had been investing in those markets to create wealth, you'd be way more screwed than with Bitcoin."
Then you go on to say: "philosophically, it is exponentially more sound and fair than fiat currency."
Currencies are not wealth-building investments. This is the dichotomy of Bitcoin enthusiasts, you want it to be both a currency and an appreciating asset. It can't be both at the same time because a currency requires a stable value over time and an investment requires an increase in value over time.
The UK banking/financial system is truly world class, so you are perhaps uniquely ill-suited for the most plausible use cases for cryptocurrencies, but even there inflation got up to 25% as recently as the mid-1970s. "Almost certainly" is overstating things, but for people in other parts of the world it isn't even directionally correct.
I haven't been a hype man, but I like crypto, so I'll bite. In my opinion, this doesn't mean much of anything:
This isn't particularly new. Crypto prices have fluctuated wildly many times in the past 10 years. For example, Bitcoin was near $20k at the beginning of 2018 and down to $5.5k later in the year. In 2013 it pushed over $1100 only to fall to a tenth of that the next year. In 2011 it crashed fun $30 to $2.
Stocks in general are taking a beating. My stock portfolio is in the gutter right now, along with pretty much everyone else's. So the focus on crypto prices being down confuses me.
Of course there were people out there claiming Bitcoin would hit $100k and beyond, and they were wrong. But there are always going to be people making wild predictions in any betting market. People are saying the same about Apple and Tesla stock.
And if you're someone who believes (for example) that NFTs have real utility, that shouldn't change just because ETH is down, any more than you should suddenly start disliking your Tesla vehicle because the TSLA stock price is down, or start disliking your home because the housing market is down.
I haven't been hyping anything but I do have a deep understanding of why Bitcoin does what it does.
First of all, it's not just hype that drives prices up. Bitcoin's value is directly tied to the amount of money printing governments do and have done (25% of all money in circulation was printed since the pandemic).
Bitcoin has a known fixed supply and issuance rate. Dollars (and all other fiat currencies) on the other hand will be inflated away until eventually being hyperinflated out of existence. You might think I'm exaggerating, but it's mathematically impossible to go any other way (over a long enough timeframe)
What this effectively means is that there's more dollars for every Bitcoin in existence. In other words, Bitcoin didn't change, dollars changed. Let that sink in for a second.
Inflation of the money supply leads to asset price inflation, which leads to price inflation of goods and services. We're all feeling it.
The FED tries to "fix it" by raising interest rates, which crashes markets. Prices of most assets (measured in dollars) are down right now. This is a normal part of the cycle, but it can't last forever without something in the economy breaking.
Remember, CPI inflation is a delta. In other words, it's measuring the change in prices. The FED wants to get the CPI print down from 8.6% to 2%. But it won't go negative (we haven't had negative CPI in 50 years)
To put it another way, something that cost you $100 in 2021 now costs you $108.60 and even if they hit their target 2% that thing will cost you $110.77 in 2023.
Keep in mind I'm specifically talking about how people value Bitcoin. I can't speak for other cryptos.
I'm reading a lot of FUD, more than before - but I kinda have a hard time thinking that it won't bounce back, even if it take 2/3 years. Have been through the last bear market - and at some point, you just forget things, your portfolio and you let your DCA expires - until one day, when it's bull again.
With such a ubiquitous coin going down that hard, hopefully it detracts people from making their own cryptocurrency as get rich quick schemes. It might take a few more of them, but hopefully it gets there.
NFTs are already declining in popularity, so that's a good start!
Every couple of months for the last few years there has been a big crash followed by a bull period, it's just what happens with an (almost) entirely speculative market. I stopped concerning myself with prices a while ago and focused on the implementation of crypto as a better gauge on long term viability.
Prior Bitcoin / crypto crashes have experienced similar 80+% drawdowns from peak to trough - each successive peak made new highs. The outlook still remains very bright - global crypto adoption will continue increasing over coming years.
You know, I'm wondering the same thing. BTC was supposed to be uncorrelated to the US market, inflation, and all econ impact of fiat. Yet, it seems to be highly correlated. My only conclusion is that BTC became too big and institutionalized. When it is controlled by the same group controlling everything else, then it is bound to move with other assets. <end rant>
"It also was supposed to be decentralized, and Binance was able to block all transactions from their platform."
Binance holds the keys to the wallets that store their customer's money. That puts them firmly in control of those funds. Not your keys, not your coins...
"Stable coins were supposed to be stable. Now we know they are not."
At least the "algorithmic stable coins," which have no physical currency backing them.
"The press and crypto creators were spreading things that were not true at all. Now we can see the consequences."
Yep. Just like all previous hype driven bubbles...
This was inevitable when institutional investors started buying into bitcoin.
All of a sudden the existing whales who previously had control of crypto had to compete with the biggest whale of all: the global banking apparatus.
In an emotional market (like the one we're in now), growth sells off first. Bitcoin is effectively another growth stock, and trades like your stereotypical tech stock.
The difference, however, being that those tech stocks have a book value and actual assets behind them. They're secured by those assets. Bitcoin does not have assets behind it, it is a purely speculative device that is a measurement of market sentiment.
I 100% agree that this is the cause. It's a double edge because BTC would not have the capital appreciation without the institutions. Net, net it is probably better with them in the ecosystem than without them IMO.
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Chances are, it will drop harder (my target is 12K).
Reasoning is simple : macro environment is not forecasted to improve in 2023.
Crypto is considered to be a "risk asset", which tends to be the class category that gets dropped during a recession(makes sense).
My 2 cent here, regardless of price is : get out of exchanges, go full cold wallet
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Bitcoin is a volatile asset, but it's still a functional value-store with a good brand and historical significance. It's possible that it will not go below 10k and that it will be worth more than 20k some day. So I'm buying some now.
If you decide to buy, I recommend starting by halving whatever amount you're thinking about buying and dollar cost averaging over the next 30 days (buy 1/30th of that amount, every day for the next 30 days). If you feel uncomfortable losing your money, buy much less, but in my opinion, it's wise to buy some. Even if Bitcoin somehow ends up losing most or all of its value, this could also, equally, be an extreme, historic low. Therefore it's worth the risk imho.
I've read some of this guy's opinions and he's pretty jaded, so take what he says with a grain of salt. That said, he does know his stuff.
I'm personally on the fence about crypto. Part of me says it's the way of the future and I don't want to miss the boat. Part of me says it's just a Ponzi that's destroying the planet and I don't want to support it.
Either way, right now, I'm glad that I'm not heavily invested.
I tried to buy ETH through Uniswap. The price impact is just monstrous. I entered an order amount of $1,000,000 for the sake of interest and the price impact in that case would be 99%....I think this is a bug (hope). There's not enough liquidity in the market - that's a fact. I will use aggregator Wowmax to buy on large volumes as it suits me and saves my funds. Just have to wait a week...
disclaimer: I only believe in btc. It is the only real established entity across entire crypto. I've came to the conclusion that besides btc, there's always a better solution to than other crypto. Eth was up there but now I am not so sure about Eth.
Besides there are always better technology out there than what most crypto is trying to solve, there's just way too many scams and over-marketing. So, I expect most crypto will die and left with the technology they provide (if they actually provide values).
Regarding value, BTC can drop 90% and come back, so... investors can either take this as a warning or opportunity.
"Who am I to argue?"
That's a blind appeal to authority. Anyone can be wrong, and anyone can argue with anyone. You'd better have some good arguments, though...
That said, Warren Buffet has a point, although I think bitcoin still has its use.
Warren Buffet invests in assets that have an intrinsic value and can produce income (e.g., companies). Even if nobody want to buy stock in a company, its assets (machinery, intellectual property, expertise, etc.) still have an intrinsic value. Things like paintings have intrinsic value too. If nobody else wants them, at least you can still enjoy looking at them.
By contrast crypto coins have absolutely zero intrinsic value or usefulness except in trading crypto.** Like fiat currency, there's nothing of intrinsic value backing it, so it's value is entirely what we collectively agree it is. In some ways, it's worse than fiat, because banknotes that have devalued to 0 could still be used to make a dress (and has been done with previous fiat currency collapses).
All this makes investing in crypto high risk. You're investing in it not because it's something of value, or something that generates income, but simply because you're expecting someone else to be willing to pay a higher price for it. Get rich hype is guaranteed to cause a crash. Tulip mania comes to mind... At its height, people were paying more than a house for a tulip bulb, even though it's clearly not worth that.
Bitcoin really needs to be used more as a currency, for buying and selling goods. That way it's doing something useful. Maybe once the bitcoin lightning network's usability issues have been solved...
** Blockchains supporting Decentralized Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) could be an exception to this, as they're doing something useful outside of exchanging coins between wallets.
I did not want to be dragged to an argument but I have to explain that statement it seems. My personal opinion is that bitcoin specifically is useless. You can't really do anything with it that is legal. The only times I have seen someone does something with it is either extorting hospitals, war money like in Ukraine, get rich quick schemes or for show like buying a coffee but stopping doing that after the show is over. I looked at the protocol once and it was certainly not elegant but convoluted with all kinds of assumptions and holes. Obviously, it was not intended to fulfill payments. IIRC it was intended as a replacement mechanism for swift, in which case it would certainly help russia circumvent the blockade, good or bad you decide. Blockchain have some uses but is overhyped. The assumption of not trusting institutions is a weak one for my taste. Why would I use lesser technology just for ideological reasons, it won't hold I predict, but who knows...
Ah, so your personal views have little to do with why Warren Buffet won't touch it...
Not sure why you think you can't do anything legal with it. You can legally buy and sell it, and even buy/sell legitimate goods and services. Fiat money gets used for illegal purposes all the time, so "people could (or do) use it for illegal stuff" isn't an argument for or against.
Bitcoin was intended to be a digital equivalent of cash. That is:
Everyone can use it
Nobody can control what happens to the money in someone else's wallet; i.e., no bank or government can stop you spending it, just like the cash in your pocket
Sure, the protocol currently can't handle the number of transactions per second that would be needed for global commerce. That's why the bitcoin lightning network was created.
"Why would I use lesser technology just for ideological reasons, it won't hold I predict, but who knows..."
For most people, the answer is that they wouldn't. They might use bitcoin in future if it becomes as easy to use as their credit card (and they got annoyed enough with their bank to want to switch).
Governments/banks freezing funds of political opponents could also push more people to use bitcoin (e.g., the Canadian government vs the trucker protest).
I am not an expert so I asked an expert what is the problem with bitcoin (except the number of transaction issue), 1st he does not believe the issue with transaction size will really be solved because it requires too many people to agree on that and he believes they won't be able to. 2nd problem is that if i buy something now, there is some chance that transaction never happened because another miner will win some time from now. So i just gave you some gold brick for free. Really inconvenient.
"I am not an expert so I asked an expert what is the problem with bitcoin (except the number of transaction issue), 1st he does not believe the issue with transaction size will really be solved because it requires too many people to agree on that and he believes they won't be able to."
Have a look at the Bitcoin Lightning Network, which was designed to overcome the scalability issues without requiring large changes to the base protocol.
"2nd problem is that if i buy something now, there is some chance that transaction never happened because another miner will win some time from now. So i just gave you some gold brick for free. Really inconvenient."
I'm guessing that you're talking about the "51% attacks," where an attacker could manipulate a few recently created blocks by controlling more than 50% of the mining computation power. I've been told that's been done with some of the altcoins with small mining pools (e.g., Bitcoin Gold). Incredibly hard to do with Bitcoin's huge mining capacity. Old fashioned robbery of that gold brick you sold would probably be easier...
That there is a market correction. Bitcoin has lived in a zero interest rate world, and the world is now more uncertain and more expensive than when it started. see how it develops - it was probably overvalued and now we are settling into a new valuation. calm.
I think this means that cryptocurrency is still subject to the whims of fiat currency and therefore has limited added value as a currency. That might not be the case forever though.
I think it depends on the token. I see Bitcoin as a speculative investment more than a currency. Then again, currency in and of itself is an investment class.
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A technique like that increases probability of a correct prediction. But it takes at least a year to learn it so very few people master this.
And you'd be surprised, people that know this well plus something like cycle analysis do make millions because the markets are actually quite predictable.
Anyway, I am not an expert or a trader, just been learning this a bit and following a few experts. I'd suggest to test this analysis virtually. For example, see what this guy suggests:
I worked as a stock broker in London, day traded and swing traded for many years, before I became a developer. Read books on Elliot wave, gann cycles, Wykoff and many many more. Spent thousands of hours looking at charts (most of it a waste of time).
When you model things like Elliot wave in a way where you can catch a large dataset of results (which in itself is very hard to accurately do) you would see that the edge you gain is something like 1 percent.
It shouldn’t take a year to understand Elliot wave. Those that advise it should take a year are the ones selling courses on Elliot wave. (This isn’t a dig at you btw 🙂)
Best way to consistently make money in a market is to do quantitative analysis on trends, and do this using an extremely large amount of data, by writing your own scripts to perform these tasks.
This is a huge rabbit hole to go down, I don’t advise it.
Thanks for the insight. This is just a hobby for me. Although a couple of guys I follow and try to learn from seem to predict the market moves pretty well and it helped me avoid making wrong moves. It took me a year or more to start making sense of the waves. I honestly find it fascinating how more helpful this is than the silly "buy the dip".
So I am going to see how Henrik's predictions play out. Then I may become more of a believer or less. Definitely be skeptical!
But what Robert Prechter (the main advocate of EWT) says about the psychology of the markets makes sense to me. People don't change and so the markets repeat the same patterns over and over.
Hopefully it means a decline in the popularity of cryptocurrency; a greed fueled energy-guzzling mountain of poisonous electronic waste.
I fully agree. Most of the people in crypto don't value the tech behind it and see it as a get rich quick scheme.
Crypto has valid points, but it's being abused as usual by greed.
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Hard to take this statement as pure fact without any substance to back it up. Can you explain the energy-to-value of Bitcoin and how it relates to fiat currency? Could you also explain how Bitcoin is less susceptible to "bad actors" than traditional currencies?
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Your second source says Bitcoin network "consumes an estimated 113.89 TWh/yr" in total (page 4). It goes on to say "the global energy consumption of the banking system is estimated to be 238.92 TWh/yr." (page 6)
Given that we know the traditional system processes far more than 2X the transactions, we can assume it is more efficient.
As far as inflation, I can't think of a many more inflationary events than Bitcoin losing 1/3 of it's value in 10 days. If you were trying to pay your rent in Bitcoin, the cost just exploded because it's value tumbled relative to actual currencies. This has decreased your buying power more than any Fed action could.
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I wasn't claiming anything to be incorrect. The source you provided says that the traditional banking system uses about twice as much total power as Bitcoin. We know that the traditional banking system process more than 2X the transactions of the Bitcoin network, so it is more efficient on a transaction basis.
Here is where you lose me. On one hand you say: "If you had been investing in those markets to create wealth, you'd be way more screwed than with Bitcoin."
Then you go on to say: "philosophically, it is exponentially more sound and fair than fiat currency."
Currencies are not wealth-building investments. This is the dichotomy of Bitcoin enthusiasts, you want it to be both a currency and an appreciating asset. It can't be both at the same time because a currency requires a stable value over time and an investment requires an increase in value over time.
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The UK banking/financial system is truly world class, so you are perhaps uniquely ill-suited for the most plausible use cases for cryptocurrencies, but even there inflation got up to 25% as recently as the mid-1970s. "Almost certainly" is overstating things, but for people in other parts of the world it isn't even directionally correct.
"As recently as the mid-1970s" was about 50 years ago, roughly two generations. What was the price of Bitcoin in the mid-1970s?
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I'd love to hear from the people who have been hyping it up for the past 2 years.
I haven't been a hype man, but I like crypto, so I'll bite. In my opinion, this doesn't mean much of anything:
Of course there were people out there claiming Bitcoin would hit $100k and beyond, and they were wrong. But there are always going to be people making wild predictions in any betting market. People are saying the same about Apple and Tesla stock.
And if you're someone who believes (for example) that NFTs have real utility, that shouldn't change just because ETH is down, any more than you should suddenly start disliking your Tesla vehicle because the TSLA stock price is down, or start disliking your home because the housing market is down.
I haven't been hyping anything but I do have a deep understanding of why Bitcoin does what it does.
First of all, it's not just hype that drives prices up. Bitcoin's value is directly tied to the amount of money printing governments do and have done (25% of all money in circulation was printed since the pandemic).
Bitcoin has a known fixed supply and issuance rate. Dollars (and all other fiat currencies) on the other hand will be inflated away until eventually being hyperinflated out of existence. You might think I'm exaggerating, but it's mathematically impossible to go any other way (over a long enough timeframe)
What this effectively means is that there's more dollars for every Bitcoin in existence. In other words, Bitcoin didn't change, dollars changed. Let that sink in for a second.
Inflation of the money supply leads to asset price inflation, which leads to price inflation of goods and services. We're all feeling it.
The FED tries to "fix it" by raising interest rates, which crashes markets. Prices of most assets (measured in dollars) are down right now. This is a normal part of the cycle, but it can't last forever without something in the economy breaking.
Remember, CPI inflation is a delta. In other words, it's measuring the change in prices. The FED wants to get the CPI print down from 8.6% to 2%. But it won't go negative (we haven't had negative CPI in 50 years)
To put it another way, something that cost you $100 in 2021 now costs you $108.60 and even if they hit their target 2% that thing will cost you $110.77 in 2023.
Keep in mind I'm specifically talking about how people value Bitcoin. I can't speak for other cryptos.
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I'm reading a lot of FUD, more than before - but I kinda have a hard time thinking that it won't bounce back, even if it take 2/3 years. Have been through the last bear market - and at some point, you just forget things, your portfolio and you let your DCA expires - until one day, when it's bull again.
With such a ubiquitous coin going down that hard, hopefully it detracts people from making their own cryptocurrency as get rich quick schemes. It might take a few more of them, but hopefully it gets there.
NFTs are already declining in popularity, so that's a good start!
Every couple of months for the last few years there has been a big crash followed by a bull period, it's just what happens with an (almost) entirely speculative market. I stopped concerning myself with prices a while ago and focused on the implementation of crypto as a better gauge on long term viability.
Prior Bitcoin / crypto crashes have experienced similar 80+% drawdowns from peak to trough - each successive peak made new highs. The outlook still remains very bright - global crypto adoption will continue increasing over coming years.
They never should have been investments
You know, I'm wondering the same thing. BTC was supposed to be uncorrelated to the US market, inflation, and all econ impact of fiat. Yet, it seems to be highly correlated. My only conclusion is that BTC became too big and institutionalized. When it is controlled by the same group controlling everything else, then it is bound to move with other assets. <end rant>
It also was supposed to be decentralized, and Binance was able to block all transactions from their platform.
Stable coins were supposed to be stable. Now we know they are not.
The press and crypto creators were spreading things that were not true at all. Now we can see the consequences.
"It also was supposed to be decentralized, and Binance was able to block all transactions from their platform."
Binance holds the keys to the wallets that store their customer's money. That puts them firmly in control of those funds. Not your keys, not your coins...
"Stable coins were supposed to be stable. Now we know they are not."
At least the "algorithmic stable coins," which have no physical currency backing them.
"The press and crypto creators were spreading things that were not true at all. Now we can see the consequences."
Yep. Just like all previous hype driven bubbles...
This was inevitable when institutional investors started buying into bitcoin.
All of a sudden the existing whales who previously had control of crypto had to compete with the biggest whale of all: the global banking apparatus.
In an emotional market (like the one we're in now), growth sells off first. Bitcoin is effectively another growth stock, and trades like your stereotypical tech stock.
The difference, however, being that those tech stocks have a book value and actual assets behind them. They're secured by those assets. Bitcoin does not have assets behind it, it is a purely speculative device that is a measurement of market sentiment.
I 100% agree that this is the cause. It's a double edge because BTC would not have the capital appreciation without the institutions. Net, net it is probably better with them in the ecosystem than without them IMO.
The great crypto winter is coming.
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Chances are, it will drop harder (my target is 12K).
Reasoning is simple : macro environment is not forecasted to improve in 2023.
Crypto is considered to be a "risk asset", which tends to be the class category that gets dropped during a recession(makes sense).
My 2 cent here, regardless of price is : get out of exchanges, go full cold wallet
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Bitcoin is a volatile asset, but it's still a functional value-store with a good brand and historical significance. It's possible that it will not go below 10k and that it will be worth more than 20k some day. So I'm buying some now.
If you decide to buy, I recommend starting by halving whatever amount you're thinking about buying and dollar cost averaging over the next 30 days (buy 1/30th of that amount, every day for the next 30 days). If you feel uncomfortable losing your money, buy much less, but in my opinion, it's wise to buy some. Even if Bitcoin somehow ends up losing most or all of its value, this could also, equally, be an extreme, historic low. Therefore it's worth the risk imho.
I think by the beginning of August the situation will change dramatically...
https://www.iansbnr.com/the-bitcoin-investment-thesis-is-broken/
Perspective !!
I've read some of this guy's opinions and he's pretty jaded, so take what he says with a grain of salt. That said, he does know his stuff.
I'm personally on the fence about crypto. Part of me says it's the way of the future and I don't want to miss the boat. Part of me says it's just a Ponzi that's destroying the planet and I don't want to support it.
Either way, right now, I'm glad that I'm not heavily invested.
I tried to buy ETH through Uniswap. The price impact is just monstrous. I entered an order amount of $1,000,000 for the sake of interest and the price impact in that case would be 99%....I think this is a bug (hope). There's not enough liquidity in the market - that's a fact. I will use aggregator Wowmax to buy on large volumes as it suits me and saves my funds. Just have to wait a week...
disclaimer: I only believe in btc. It is the only real established entity across entire crypto. I've came to the conclusion that besides btc, there's always a better solution to than other crypto. Eth was up there but now I am not so sure about Eth.
Besides there are always better technology out there than what most crypto is trying to solve, there's just way too many scams and over-marketing. So, I expect most crypto will die and left with the technology they provide (if they actually provide values).
Regarding value, BTC can drop 90% and come back, so... investors can either take this as a warning or opportunity.
"Fake News"
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/30/warren-buffett-gives-his-most-expansive-explanation-for-why-he-doesnt-believe-in-bitcoin.html
Who am I to argue...?
"Who am I to argue?"
That's a blind appeal to authority. Anyone can be wrong, and anyone can argue with anyone. You'd better have some good arguments, though...
That said, Warren Buffet has a point, although I think bitcoin still has its use.
Warren Buffet invests in assets that have an intrinsic value and can produce income (e.g., companies). Even if nobody want to buy stock in a company, its assets (machinery, intellectual property, expertise, etc.) still have an intrinsic value. Things like paintings have intrinsic value too. If nobody else wants them, at least you can still enjoy looking at them.
By contrast crypto coins have absolutely zero intrinsic value or usefulness except in trading crypto.** Like fiat currency, there's nothing of intrinsic value backing it, so it's value is entirely what we collectively agree it is. In some ways, it's worse than fiat, because banknotes that have devalued to 0 could still be used to make a dress (and has been done with previous fiat currency collapses).
All this makes investing in crypto high risk. You're investing in it not because it's something of value, or something that generates income, but simply because you're expecting someone else to be willing to pay a higher price for it. Get rich hype is guaranteed to cause a crash. Tulip mania comes to mind... At its height, people were paying more than a house for a tulip bulb, even though it's clearly not worth that.
Bitcoin really needs to be used more as a currency, for buying and selling goods. That way it's doing something useful. Maybe once the bitcoin lightning network's usability issues have been solved...
** Blockchains supporting Decentralized Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) could be an exception to this, as they're doing something useful outside of exchanging coins between wallets.
I did not want to be dragged to an argument but I have to explain that statement it seems. My personal opinion is that bitcoin specifically is useless. You can't really do anything with it that is legal. The only times I have seen someone does something with it is either extorting hospitals, war money like in Ukraine, get rich quick schemes or for show like buying a coffee but stopping doing that after the show is over. I looked at the protocol once and it was certainly not elegant but convoluted with all kinds of assumptions and holes. Obviously, it was not intended to fulfill payments. IIRC it was intended as a replacement mechanism for swift, in which case it would certainly help russia circumvent the blockade, good or bad you decide. Blockchain have some uses but is overhyped. The assumption of not trusting institutions is a weak one for my taste. Why would I use lesser technology just for ideological reasons, it won't hold I predict, but who knows...
Ah, so your personal views have little to do with why Warren Buffet won't touch it...
Not sure why you think you can't do anything legal with it. You can legally buy and sell it, and even buy/sell legitimate goods and services. Fiat money gets used for illegal purposes all the time, so "people could (or do) use it for illegal stuff" isn't an argument for or against.
Bitcoin was intended to be a digital equivalent of cash. That is:
Sure, the protocol currently can't handle the number of transactions per second that would be needed for global commerce. That's why the bitcoin lightning network was created.
"Why would I use lesser technology just for ideological reasons, it won't hold I predict, but who knows..."
For most people, the answer is that they wouldn't. They might use bitcoin in future if it becomes as easy to use as their credit card (and they got annoyed enough with their bank to want to switch).
Governments/banks freezing funds of political opponents could also push more people to use bitcoin (e.g., the Canadian government vs the trucker protest).
I am not an expert so I asked an expert what is the problem with bitcoin (except the number of transaction issue), 1st he does not believe the issue with transaction size will really be solved because it requires too many people to agree on that and he believes they won't be able to. 2nd problem is that if i buy something now, there is some chance that transaction never happened because another miner will win some time from now. So i just gave you some gold brick for free. Really inconvenient.
"I am not an expert so I asked an expert what is the problem with bitcoin (except the number of transaction issue), 1st he does not believe the issue with transaction size will really be solved because it requires too many people to agree on that and he believes they won't be able to."
Have a look at the Bitcoin Lightning Network, which was designed to overcome the scalability issues without requiring large changes to the base protocol.
"2nd problem is that if i buy something now, there is some chance that transaction never happened because another miner will win some time from now. So i just gave you some gold brick for free. Really inconvenient."
I'm guessing that you're talking about the "51% attacks," where an attacker could manipulate a few recently created blocks by controlling more than 50% of the mining computation power. I've been told that's been done with some of the altcoins with small mining pools (e.g., Bitcoin Gold). Incredibly hard to do with Bitcoin's huge mining capacity. Old fashioned robbery of that gold brick you sold would probably be easier...
too bad,, on the way to 15k
That there is a market correction. Bitcoin has lived in a zero interest rate world, and the world is now more uncertain and more expensive than when it started. see how it develops - it was probably overvalued and now we are settling into a new valuation. calm.
It means nothing much.
Bitcoin has always been volatile vs USD.
The reason is that there isn’t much genuine trade in goods and services with it and it is mostly speculation, so fear and greed really amplify things.
The underlying technology is the same.
A price decrease is good for the environment and gamers I guess.
That said, it would be good if Bitcoin moved away from PoW to avoid the waste of electricity and silicon that it is now.
It would also make Bitcoin more valuable as cash flowing out to buy vast amounts of energy would decrease.
accounts running down to zero
I think this means that cryptocurrency is still subject to the whims of fiat currency and therefore has limited added value as a currency. That might not be the case forever though.
They are bad investments which may make them better currencies.
I think it depends on the token. I see Bitcoin as a speculative investment more than a currency. Then again, currency in and of itself is an investment class.
Market cap due to unscrupulous lending is evaporating
This period will be the equivalent of the great depression for crypto.
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Check out this Elliott Wave based technical analysis, a massive correction is underway.
https://youtu.be/aUSf_C0TgGw
If Elliot wave analysis was all we needed to predict a market we’d all be millionaires.
A technique like that increases probability of a correct prediction. But it takes at least a year to learn it so very few people master this.
And you'd be surprised, people that know this well plus something like cycle analysis do make millions because the markets are actually quite predictable.
Anyway, I am not an expert or a trader, just been learning this a bit and following a few experts. I'd suggest to test this analysis virtually. For example, see what this guy suggests:
Make a mental note of that, wait for a month, see if he is right.
He's been correct a number of times so far:
I worked as a stock broker in London, day traded and swing traded for many years, before I became a developer. Read books on Elliot wave, gann cycles, Wykoff and many many more. Spent thousands of hours looking at charts (most of it a waste of time).
When you model things like Elliot wave in a way where you can catch a large dataset of results (which in itself is very hard to accurately do) you would see that the edge you gain is something like 1 percent.
It shouldn’t take a year to understand Elliot wave. Those that advise it should take a year are the ones selling courses on Elliot wave. (This isn’t a dig at you btw 🙂)
Best way to consistently make money in a market is to do quantitative analysis on trends, and do this using an extremely large amount of data, by writing your own scripts to perform these tasks.
This is a huge rabbit hole to go down, I don’t advise it.
Thanks for the insight. This is just a hobby for me. Although a couple of guys I follow and try to learn from seem to predict the market moves pretty well and it helped me avoid making wrong moves. It took me a year or more to start making sense of the waves. I honestly find it fascinating how more helpful this is than the silly "buy the dip".
So I am going to see how Henrik's predictions play out. Then I may become more of a believer or less. Definitely be skeptical!
But what Robert Prechter (the main advocate of EWT) says about the psychology of the markets makes sense to me. People don't change and so the markets repeat the same patterns over and over.
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Is it really a good time to buy right now, though? That's what I've been wondering. If it were stocks, I'd buy now, but...
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Cool, thanks for the input!